On Tuesday, PolyMarket, the world’s largest political prediction betting platform, forecasted a 75% chance that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will be impeached following his arrest on charges of leading a rebellion.
PolyMarket, a cryptocurrency-based betting platform, reported that the betting odds for Yoon’s potential removal from office after a ruling by South Korea’s Constitutional Court stood at 81% in favor of impeachment. Users were asked whether Yoon would be ousted by April following the court’s ruling on his impeachment.
As of 10 AM on Tuesday, the total amount wagered had reached approximately $6.3 million.
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, PolyMarket allows users to place bets using USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. Participants can purchase shares ranging from $0 to $1 per share on various political events. If a user’s prediction is correct, they earn $1 per share; if incorrect, they lose their entire bet.
Before the outcome is revealed, users can also buy and sell their betting rights. For example, if the Impeachment of Yoon’s share is priced at 75 cents, the market assigns a 75% probability to the likelihood of his impeachment.
As more people place bets on Yoon’s impeachment, the betting odds (or probability) increase. The option to bet on his impeachment first appeared on December 5, following the December 3 insurrection incident. Since then, the odds have fluctuated.
The lowest recorded likelihood of impeachment was 47% on December 28, while the highest surged to 86% on Friday. The probability has fluctuated between 74% and 86% in the past week.
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court is set to conclude its proceedings on Tuesday during the 11th hearing after reviewing evidence and hearing final statements.
Once the hearing concludes, the judges will deliberate and discuss their opinions on the impeachment. Following the lead judge’s review, a verdict will then be reached through a vote.
After the verdict, the presiding judge will draft a preliminary decision based on the majority opinion. The final decision will be confirmed after dissenting views regarding the decision’s reasoning are submitted, allowing for a more thorough ruling.
In past cases, the impeachment rulings for former Presidents Roh Moo Hyun and Park Geun Hye were delivered 14 and 11 days, respectively, after the hearings concluded. Based on this precedent, many speculate that the Constitutional Court may issue its ruling on Yoon’s impeachment around mid-March.
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